Private Equity Confidence Survey: Second half of 2010
Back to 2007
Many of the responses to this latest survey are similar to those of our first survey in 2007. Thus we might conclude that investors’ confidence in Turkey has now fully recovered from the problems of the global recession. Similarly, the Istanbul Stock Exchange ISE-100 index has recently been testing new highs just above its previous peak in late 2007.
In Turkey we do not see the fears prevalent in some Western European countries that lingering weaknesses in the banking sector will hinder lending and therefore recovery. The banks appear to be in robust good health. Government finances are not under particular strain. The contrast with the weaker members of the Eurozone is dramatic.
However a degree of caution remains for other reasons. Partly this is political. The zsurvey was conducted during the run-up to a referendum on constitutional changes. This was inevitably seen as being a vote of confidence in the government, and at times it appeared the result was on a knife-edge. In fact the outcome was a decisive “yes” vote.
In addition, the Turkish economy is more and more closely integrated internationally, and cannot prosper without growth in its export markets. The trade deficit is already widening.
Thus survey respondents paint a mixed picture about the ease of raising new funds. But in the meantime, we see a great deal of day-today activity among investors assessing and negotiating with target businesses, together with the beginnings of growth in disposals. We share our survey respondents’ optimism for the coming six months.
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