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Global Economic Outlook

4TH quarter 2008


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Global Economic Outlook - 4th Quarter 2008

Financial events are moving rapidly and, although we cannot be sure of how things will unfold, we can hope to provide some perspective regarding the current crisis. Hence, our latest quarterly Global Economic Outlook offers a bit of history. In addition, we have hesitantly offered our views on where things go from here.

This Deloitte Research report highlights the three waves of events, and the policy responses, that have produced the financial crisis of the past year. It also provides our historical perspective on what has transpired when, as with the US housing market, asset price bubbles exploded in other countries. The successes and failures of different policy responses provide a useful comparison with which to judge current events.

Aside from the financial crisis, the report focuses on a critical issue that has been shadowed by the financial crisis. That issue is the price of oil. We offer some scenarios as to what might happen next and consider the economic and business consequences of persistently high petroleum prices. We also examine the outlook for inflation in both developed and emerging countries. In addition, we look at the impact of exchange rate policy in emerging markets.

Finally, our global economists provide outlooks for the economies of the US, UK, Eurozone, Russia, India, China, Japan, and Brazil.

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