Technology, Media & Telecommunications Predictions 2014
TMT Predictions’ objective is to identify critical inflection points we believe should inform industry strategic thinking, and to explain how we think these will manifest over the next 12-18 months. Our perspectives are built around hundreds of discussions with industry executives, analysts and commentators, along with tens of thousands of consumer interviews.
As in each year that we have published a set of predictions, the core drivers of disruption in the sector remain the same: processor speed, connectivity and storage.
For the past decade, these three drivers have enabled massive advances in the utility, ubiquity and spend on connected devices. In 2014, we expect five connected devices which constitute the converged living room – TVs, PCs, video game consoles, smartphones (including phablets) and tablets – to generate $750 billion in revenue.
Despite launching a mere four years ago, tablets are already mainstream and approaching maturity, in that the category now describes a wide, and widening, range of capabilities, sizes, user bases and uses. The largest component in the converged living room group, smartphones ($375 billion revenue in 2014), are nearing saturation among most age groups, although there is still a prime opportunity among people older than 55 – a demographic likely to experience one of the steepest rises in penetration rate this year.
Smartphone and tablet vendors are emphasizing ruggedness as a key differentiator, which will make the cracked screen even less common in 2014. The focus also has the benefit of making consumer devices increasingly appropriate for use in non-office environments, and in 2014 we expect a rugged field-force device will cost as little as $250.
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