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2014 Oil and Gas Reality Check


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Energy markets are reshaping the global geopolitical landscape and increasing interdependencies among nations, according to Deloitte report 

Moscow, 17 June 2014 –The ripple effects of the North American energy boom from major importer to soon-to-be exporter are being felt across the Middle East, Russia and China.  This trend will result in new sources of supply, increase competition, reshape the global geopolitical landscape and create greater interdependencies among nations, according to the Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (DTTL) 2014 Oil and Gas Reality Check report.

The report focuses on expansion and contraction on a number of fronts: the waxing and waning of dominance among suppliers; the progression into globalization from regionalization in energy markets; the growing shares of some fuels and the declining roles of others in the global energy mix; and, the opening and closing of borders in response to geopolitical concerns.

Adi Karev, global head of oil & gas, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, comments: “This year, energy markets have been marked by geopolitical motivations and pragmatism to an extent never seen before. The effect of the North American energy revolution will be felt in fewer energy-related tensions across Eurasia, as well as in the continuation of efforts by the US to maintain its role as keeper of the global balance of power in the face of rising Chinese and reviving Russian influence in world affairs.”

The report outlines five key areas:

Global energy - North American revolution 

The US is currently positioned to be a net exporter of natural gas by the end of this decade according to projections from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).[1]  “Some fear this growing feeling of self-sufficiency will translate into greater isolationism and a reluctance to remain engaged in international affairs. However, I believe that this scenario is unlikely as we begin to see new sources of supply and greater competition for demand, particularly in Asia Pacific. A simultaneous shift toward cleaner fuels in the global energy mix bodes well for natural gas, and consequently for LNG as natural gas globalizes,” said Karev.

Energy supplies – New sources, new geopolitics

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia have dominated the oil and gas export environment for over half a century. Today, new suppliers are challenging their dominance, and in the process, altering the geopolitical landscape. “New sources of supply will shake up the global hydrocarbon markets in the next decade. Increased US domestic output, as well as production growth in Canada, Mexico, Brazil and Kazakhstan, will re-shape global oil and gas markets and the geopolitical landscape. We are likely to see decreased dominance of traditional producers, mainly OPEC countries and Russia, that will be challenged, and they will be forced to compete more aggressively to maintain their market share and influence,” said Karev.

Energy mix – A change in the global order

The global energy mix is shifting toward cleaner fuels such as natural gas.  In North America, natural gas is increasingly being used in power generation, manufacturing, and transportation. Japan also plans to increase the share of natural gas in its power mix, continuing a course that was set after the Fukushima Daiichi accident forced a pause in its use of nuclear power.  In Europe, the desire to adopt cleaner fuels will continue despite some recent backtracking on more costly renewable sources, which has temporarily driven the region toward greater consumption of coal. 

Energy production – Oil and gas megaprojects call for new project management strategies

Oil and gas megaproject reserves, those holding more than one billion barrels of oil equivalent, can be broadly grouped into three categories: traditional, new-age, and unconventionals.  Traditional projects comprise onshore, shallow water, heavy oil; new-age projects encompass LNG, gas-to-liquids (GTL), deepwater, and Arctic; and unconventional projects refer to shale, tight oil and oil sands in Canada.

Energy nationalism – Driven by greed, fear, and pride 

Resource nationalism results from a tug of war amongst three basic human drives: the desire for wealth as resources are monetized (greed); the desire for energy security since modern societies are very dependent on energy (fear); and the desire to maintain national sovereignty over one's resources for purposes of national development (pride). Every country wrestles with these opposing and conflicting agendas at some point, reflecting changing national endowments, local development objectives and national priorities.

[1] Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2014, April 2014,

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/source_natural_gas_all.cfm

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Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee (“DTTL”), its network of member firms, and their related entities.  DTTL and each of its member firms are legally separate and independent entities.  DTTL (also referred to as “Deloitte Global”) does not provide services to clients.  Please see www.deloitte.com/about for a more detailed description of DTTL and its member firms.  

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