Deloitte 2014 TMT Predictions
Wearables to sell 10 million units in 2014, generating an estimated $3 billion, with sales to surpass 100 million units by 2020
Moscow, 17 February 2014 — The top global technology, media, and telecom trends for 2014 include the 10 million unit year for wearable technologies; 50 million homes doubling up on pay-television (TV); the global value of premium sports video rights increasing 14 percent led by North American sports leagues and European football (soccer); and a potential upsurge of eVisits according to Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited’s (DTTL) 13th edition of the Global TMT Predictions. In addition, the report predicts that phablets — an oversized smartphone that’s part cell phone, part tablet — will outsell tablets by $25 billon and the total global sales of smartphones, tablets, PCs, TV sets, and gaming consoles will exceed $750 billion in 2014 and then plateau as consumer usage will continue to converge.
“Our report details many watched and often contended trends in the industry. While there has been much uncertainty around wearables, we predict that consumer interest will lead to a lucrative market with $3 billion in sales in glasses, watches, and fitness bands. We also anticipate a doubling up on Pay TV, which is counter to historical expectations of ‘cord cutting,” said Jolyon Barker, Managing Director, Global TMT Industry, DTTL. “Additionally, smartphones, the largest component in the converged living room group ($375 billion revenue in 2014), are nearing saturation among most age groups except the 55+ demographic, which will experience a steep rise in usage this year.”
In 2014, mobile instant messaging services (IMS) will generate about 70 percent of all messages sent from mobile phones, but only about three percent of the value. Every day, 70 billion messages will be sent via mobile, of which only 21 billion will be via short messaging service (SMS), but text message revenues are projected at about $100 billion this year, compared to just $2 billion for mobile IM services. Globally volumes of mobile IMS and text messages will grow, even though some developed markets may see falling SMS volumes.
This year’s Predictions also tackles eVisits and predicts the practice to go mainstream. “We will see an inflection point in 2014 in their adoption, partially due to pressure to reduce medical costs and improve care, but mostly due to changes in technology and telecommunications infrastructure,” Barker added
The report also looks well beyond 2014 and predicts a “perfect storm” of conditions that could make Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) a major factor by 2020, representing over 10 percent of all courses taken in tertiary and enterprise continuing education. New technology, alternative modes of teaching and a need to continuously update quickly obsolete skills are driving the trend, suggesting MOOCs will grow enormously over the longer term, even if disruption is minimal in 2014.
“We believe that an understanding of development trends in TMT industries is an important competitive factor in all key sectors of the economy. We hope that many of the trends included in this forecast will be relevant to Russian companies and will continue to play a significant role in changing the conventional lifestyle in our country,” resumes Olga Tabakova, Partner, Deloitte CIS Leader of Technology, Media and Telecommunications practice.
Additional highlights and details of this year’s TMT predictions to impact the marketplace in 2014 include:
Media and Entertainment
About the DTTL TMT Predictions
The TMT Predictions are based on worldwide research supported by in-depth interviews and input from Deloitte member firm clients, Deloitte alumni, industry analysts, leading TMT executives, and thousands of Deloitte member firm TMT practitioners across its global network. The focus of Predictions varies from year-to –year, but one theme appears constant: the impact of TMT on our behavior steadily deepens.
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Deloitte provides audit, tax, consulting, and financial advisory services to public and private clients spanning multiple industries. With a globally connected network of member firms in more than 150 countries, Deloitte brings world-class capabilities and high-quality service to clients, delivering the insights they need to address their most complex business challenges. Deloitte has in the region of 200,000 professionals, all committed to becoming the standard of excellence.