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People will carry more than 16 billion minutes of calls in GMS networks daily |
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Deloitte in Macedonia
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In 2008, mobile phones users will send six billion text messages and carry more than 16 billion minutes of calls. Over six million GSM handsets are expected to be manufactured, and GSM’s global subscriber base will grow by 1.2 million. GSM is forecast to generate 3 billion dollars of world’s daily GDP, according to Deloitte’s Telecommunications Predictions. TMT Trends 2008. “The will to grow via acquisitions is likely to remain strong in the mobile telecommunications sector. Developed world mobile operators are looking to purchase stakes in emerging markets to tap into their growth. However, acquisition targets may increasingly become acquirers in 2008. This year, new mobile subscribers in emerging markets may number almost one-third of a billion”, says Dejan Ljuština, manager in Deloitte’s Consulting department. More than a billion new mobile subscribers are forecast to be added in developing countries until the end of this decade.
The price of mobile phones has fallen sharply and a growing number of models are now priced at under 50 dollars. Lower priced handsets are likely to increase overall mobile penetration rates, which are rapidly approaching saturation point. However, another market, so far little exploited, could be a major consumer of a 10 dollars mobile – the machine. Integrating mobile connectivity into machines could take the total addressable market for mobile subscriptions to tens of billions. But mobile manufacturers would have to work closely together to develop a single, globally recognized standards which will enable integration of mobile modules into different devices.
In the last few years, mobile has steadily evolved from an outdoor network into an indoor network. During 2008, 70 percent of mobile calls are expected to originate inside a building. Deloitte’s experts predict that this may cause some operators to contemplate, and in some cases undertake, newtork sharing. While sharing has attractive economic benefits, regulators and customers may worry about its impact on independence, innovation and quality. The prices for GPS chipsets will likely continue to fall and, accordingly, the number of mobile phones that incorporate this technology is expected to grow. While the combination of GPS and mobile phones should ultimately be a success, it is still hard to predict whether they will become a permanent function rather than a trend.
The telecommunications industry appears to be too focused on serving the youth market. This results in products and services that while looking good may be daunting to use for older generations. The sector should instead increase its focus on developing products and services accesible to those over 45 and to people with special needs. Developing products and services as large-button phones and talking text messages could have mass market success.
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