This site uses cookies to provide you with a more responsive and personalised service. By using this site you agree to our use of cookies. Please read our cookie notice for more information on the cookies we use and how to delete or block them.

Bookmark Email Print page

Hotel market outlook

Quarter 3 2009


DOWNLOAD  
Hotel market outlook

 

Background

Hotel market outlook capitalises on Deloitte’s extensive knowledge of the hospitality industry, enabling us to provide commentary and analysis on future trends, as predicted by the e-forecasting model, as well as historic ones. The outlook is produced using data from a consistent sample of hotels collected by STR Global Limited. This data is input into an econometric model developed by the independent economic research firm, e-forecasting Inc, to produce hotel performance outlooks for the London and Regional UK markets.

Key findings

  • In Q3 2009, Regional UK hotels reported the largest declines in revPAR, down 10.3% driven primarily by average room rate declines. London hoteliers reported more promising results, with revPAR falling 6.7%.
  • The model expects hotels in London to see further improvements in revPAR during Q4 2009, falling 3.5% - a 5% improvement on the previous forecast of -8.5%. However, I expect that the capital will ‘smash’ the model’s predictions and report positive revPAR growth for the quarter, as October and November results saw the capital post growth.
  • The year-end outlook for Regional UK hotels is gloomier than previously forecast, with revPAR down 10.0% led by deterioration in average room rates. I believe that the outlook for Regional UK hotels will be more difficult than predicted however, as occupancy is still falling, an indication that 2010 will be a great deal tougher than the model is currently predicting.

Share this page

Email this Send to LinkedIn Send to Facebook Tweet this More sharing options
Follow:

Get in touch

More on Deloitte