Global economic outlook – 1st quarter 2009 |
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Since our last quarterly report, the global economy has stabilized somewhat—albeit at a low and declining level. Stability implies a lack of near daily shocks. It does not imply good times. Although there are no longer daily shocks, there are some shocking things happening. These include a nearly synchronous decline in economic growth throughout much of the world, a rapid drop in commodity prices, a rapid decline in a variety of other asset prices, and shrinkage of global trade, in part brought on by failings in the market for trade finance. Yet perhaps the most shocking event is the dramatic change of mindset regarding government policy and the proper role of government in the economy. Much conventional wisdom has been thrown out the window as governments navigate a new landscape, contemplate the unmentionable, and take actions once thought inconceivable. There is almost too much to absorb.
That is where we come in. In this issue of the quarterly Global economic outlook, Deloitte Research global economists attempt to make sense of what is going on, in addition to providing their usual outlook for the near term future. Here is what to expect in this report:
- Analysis of some of the risks and opportunities stemming from the global crisis
- Views on how the emerging markets are faring in this crisis
- A look at how monetary policy is working, or not working, during the current crisis
- Outlooks on nine major countries/regions beginning with the U.S. economic downturn and the efficacy of the policy responses, both past and future. We also look at the economics of the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, Russia, India, China, Japan, Latin America, and the Middle East
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Global economic outlook - Q1 2009
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