Measuring the forces of long-term changeThe 2009 Shift Index |
seemingly endless stream of books, articles, reports, and blogs make similar claims: The world is flattening; the economy has picked up speed; computing power is increasing; competition is intensifying.
Though we’re aware of these trends in the abstract, we lack quantified measures. We know that a shift is underway, but we have no method of characterizing its speed or acceleration or making comparisons. Are rates of change increasing, decreasing, or settling into stable patterns (e.g. Moore’s Law)? How do we compare exponential changes in bandwidth to linear increases in Internet usage? Without times series data and a methodology for integrating those data, we cannot identify, anticipate, or plan for change.
The Deloitte Center for the Edge – led by John Hagel III, John Seely Brown, and Lang Davison—fills that void. In this report, they describe their Shift Index. The Shift Index consists of three indices: Foundation, Flow, and Impact, and 25 metrics that together quantify the stock, pace, and implications of the shift.
The Shift Index speaks metric to metaphor. The index enables analysts to anticipate changes, identify bottlenecks, and guide strategy. Not everyone will choose to monitor the same metrics or assign them the same weights. Thus, the Shift Index is less a single measure and more an informational playground that will give rise to a diversity of models and, a stronger collective sense about the pace and nature of change.
Measuring the forces of long-term change
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