Asia Pacific economic outlook - December 2009
The December 2009 edition of the Asia Pacific economic outlook gives a near-term outlook for China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Philippines.
- China – The “low interest rate–fixed exchange rate” policy stance will likely continue beyond the first quarter of 2010. With domestic demand expected to continue to drive growth, and exports to act as less of a drag on growth, the economy is expected to turn in a very strong performance — probably closer to 10 percent — in the last quarter of 2009. The trend will likely continue into the first quarter of 2010.
- Indonesia – The economy is expected to grow between 4 and 5 percent this year. With private consumption driving growth, the economy is in good shape and can only be expected to improve from here.
- Malaysia – With the fiscal and monetary stimulus continuing, and exports expected to recover, the growth this quarter and in the next is likely to return to positive territory (YoY). In the long term, however, the performance could depend on whether the economy is able to make the structural changes that look necessary.
- Philippines – The recovery in 3Q09 was surprisingly subdued at 0.8 percent (YoY). The key to its continued growth is likely to lie in strong growth in remittances that support private consumption, political stability following the 2010 elections, and continued consolidation of its fiscal position.