Private Equity – Resurging confidence in Central Europe

After reaching an all-time low at the end of 2008, Deloitte’s Central European Private Equity Confidence Index has rebounded, with data indicating that professionals are optimistic about private equity coming back on track. 

Deloitte has been running the Central Europe Private Equity Confidence Survey since March 2003. Within the 14th edition (October 2009), confidence is shown as returning to almost pre-crisis levels and findings highlight that only a small minority of PE practitioners now expect the economic environment to deteriorate further. The decline in the CE PE Confidence index during the financial crisis was sharp and deep, decreasing by 70 points from 118 in October 2007 to 48 by October 2008. The recovery in confi-dence, however, has also rebounded equally as sharply, recovering 69 to 117 by October 2009. 

Garret Byrne, M&A Transactions Services leader for Deloitte in Central Europe, has noted that “optimism is growing amongst the private equity community in Central Europe. The results of our latest Private Equity Confidence Survey show that just as the decrease in confidence was dramatic, the return of a more optimistic outlook has been equally as swift”. 

„The increased interest in Private Equity is apparent”, confirms Todor Todorov, Assistant Director Financial Advisory Services, Deloitte Bulgaria. “Key funds like Advent, MidEuropa, EQT have announced deals with Bulgarian market leaders which generated additional attention towards the country. In the last few weeks we have held more talks with financial investors regarding potential deals than in the first nine months of the year altogether”, concludes Todorov. 

Private equity professionals are expressing far more optimism about the overall economic climate in the next six months, with an expectation of a return to growth. Only a small minority of PE practitioners expect the economic environment to deteriorate further, while a significant proportion of respondents said they expect that the economies of Central Europe will outperform those of Western European countries. 

“Economic growth doesn’t mean that the old days when assets prices were growing sky high will return”, advises Todorov. According to him this time is irreversibly gone and private equity funds remain cautious in their analyses. Despite high confidence among professionals about the recovery prospects of PE and the Central European region, it has been impossible to ignore the ongoing effect of the global financial crisis. “Negative impacts of the financial crisis will continue to be felt,” added Byrne. “Debt markets are still restricted and in the short term we expect there to be continued fall out with some of the weaker companies that have been less responsive in tackling the crisis failing.” Frozen debt markets are still inhibiting M&A activity from resuming, with few respondents expecting that the situation will improve in the next six months.

 While we have recently seen an increase in the number of Central European companies entering bankruptcy or insolvency proceedings, some funds are seeing opportunity in this environment of corporate adversity. 

Distressed companies and companies in restructuring are becoming important targets for deal makers that want to buy assets cheaply and have the appropriate risk appetite and mandate to do so. 

Still Todor Todorov believes that such deals are hard to conclude, especially when the companies’ creditors are quite a few and waiting on the line. "The assessment of an investment opportunity is much more than a multiple of profits. When market participants are aware of that, deals do take place", concludes Todorov. 

Highlights of the survey:

Economic Climate 
The overall economic climate is expected to rebound over the next six months and return to growth. Over 90% of respondents expect the economy to stabilize or improve. 

Debt Availability 
Even though overall prospects are improving, financing and debt markets are expected to remain inhibited. The proportion of respondents seeing an improvement is steadily increasing. 

Investors´ Focus 
Private Equity investors are expecting to move away from portfolio management to concentrate on new investment. Fundraising is off the agenda reflecting a high level of existing funding in place. 

Size of Transaction 
Limitations of debt markets will hamper leveraged buyouts, as such private equity professionals will continue to focus on midsize targets. 

Market Activity 
After a period of stabilisation PE professionals expected M&A market activity to improve. 

Investment ReturnAn improving overall economic climate and reinvigoration of M&A markets will provide a favourable environment for private equity funds to generate higher levels of returns on their investments. 

Investors´ Activities 
Most of the respondents display an inclination to buy more, which is consistent with the expected improvement of market activity. 

New Investments 
Competition Market leaders will remain the most desired target for PE funds in CE. 

Interest Focus 
In the current economic environment, distressed companies and companies in restructuring are becoming important targets for deal makers with almost 40% of respondents viewing such companies as interesting. 

Development of GDP 
A significant proportion of respondents expect that the economies of Central Europe will outperform those of Western European countries. 

For more information or to download the Deloitte Central Europe Private Equity Confidence Survey please visit  http://www.deloitte.com/ce-private-equity-confidence

Deloitte Private Equity Confidence Index

The confidence index is based upon answers received from private equity professionals focused on Central Europe. It is composed from answers to the first seven questions of the ten question survey. For each period the average of positive answer ratios over the sum of positive and negative answers is computed. This average is compared to the base period, which in our case is spring 2003.

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