Technology Predictions 2010
Technology predictions from the TMT Predictions 2010 series
Our view is that 2010 should be a key year for the netTab. Moore’s Law, one of the key yardsticks of digitization’s progress, is expected to remain in effect in 2010, but with a focus on size, price, and cost, rather than power. We predict a recovery for CleanTech, following a battering by a storm of recession-induced pragmatism in 2009. But the return to growth is unlikely to be uniform.
Smaller than a netbook and bigger than a smartphone — net tablets arrive
In 2010–2011, tens of millions of connected portable devices will likely be purchased by consumers with sore eyes and sore arms. Net tablets, or netTabs, will be based on a new form factor and feature significant processing capacity. They will aim to offer an appealing balance of form and function. Priced between $400 and $800, they are likely to weigh less than 500 grams and measure about 20 cm by 12 cm by 2.5 cm. They are expected to include cellular and WiFi access, full-color touch screens, and well-populated app stores.
Thinking thin is in again: virtual desktop infrastructures challenge the PC
Virtual Desktop Infrastructure, a computing model based on "thin" or stateless clients, centralized applications, and processing power, will be taken far more seriously than in previous years, even if it does not outsell its thick client counterpart.A pure thin client approach centralizes processing power and data storage and replaces a user's computer with a dumb terminal whose role is limited to sending keyboard and mouse inputs and receiving screen inputs. In 2010, over one million seats may go thin client, with the largest deployments involving tens of thousands of seats.
Moore's Law is alive and well in 2010
Increased transistor density is unlikely to be used to produce larger or more computationally powerful chips. Instead, it could permit the production of "good enough" chips that use less electricity, cost less money, or are smaller.
Cloud computing: more than hype, but less than hyper
Cloud computing is likely to grow much faster than most other technology verticals, but will still fail to reach the heights its more enthusiastic supporters have suggested.
IT procurement stands on its head
Many enterprise technology and telecommunications purchasing decisions may be made based on the preferences of individual employees. Large chip companies are using their most advanced manufacturing techniques for devices aimed at the consumer, not the enterprise market.
CleanTech makes a comeback. But solar stays in the shadows.
After a near-collapse in the stock market value of the entire industry during the recent economic crisis, government stimulus and investor interest have catalyzed a sharp recovery in the CleanTech sector. Solar will likely be outperformed by the broader CleanTech industry.
From grey to green: technology reinvents cement
Advances in technology may soon lead to the world's first carbon-negative cement plant that could, in the medium term, deliver a significant reduction in global CO2 emissions by at least five percent.