Dynamics of the Australian Superannuation SystemThe next 20 years: 2009 - 2028 |
Superannuation in volatile times
Global financial crisis
Superannuation assets declined in value in 2008 as overall returns plummeted to -24% and more for many funds.
This decline has continued into 2009 as markets have continued to be weak and volatile.
The rate of growth of superannuation assets in the short term will depend on whether the market continues to be adversely affected by the global financial downturn and whether that downturn continues for an extended period, rebounds quickly or gradually returns to more normal levels.
Generational change
In addition we stand on the edge of a massive shift in the ownership of super assets.
In 2008, some 47% of all super assets was held by the Baby Boomer generation. Together with 13% of the assets held by those born before 1942, this amounted to more than 59% of all assets. In 2028 these groups will only represent 13% of all assets.
Over the next 20 years, generations X and Y will become the dominant superannuation customers. By 2028 they will hold 84% of all assets.
This intergenerational change that is about to sweep the superannuation industry holds fundamental implications for funds, planners and for government policy. This needs to be addressed.
The Dynamics of the Australian Superannuation System
Deloitte Super Model on which this report is based calculates the next 20 years of the market for superannuation assets, both in aggregate and within segment.
It models the Australian superannuation industry using the latest available industry data. It explores a range of scenarios to illustrate the potential impact of the global financial downturn and incorporates retirement rates and levels of fund switching.
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Dynamics of the Australian Superannuation System
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