More than half of all computers aren’t traditional computers anymore, according to Deloitte’s Technology Predictions 2011 reportDOWNLOAD
27 January 2011: Non-PC computing devices such as smartphones, tablets and non-PC netbooks will this year outsell traditional PCs for the first time, according to professional services firm Deloitte’s Technology Predictions 2011 report.
Deloitte’s Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) leader in Australia, Damien Tampling, said 2011 will be a watershed year for how people use computers and information.
“Non-PC devices put a world of information and computing power at your fingertips – anytime and anywhere,” said Mr Tampling. “This unprecedented capability will lead to breakthroughs in everything from operating systems and enterprise computing to government services, privacy and regulations.”
End of an era: more than half of all computers aren’t computers anymore
In 2011, more than 50 percent of computing devices sold globally will be smartphones, tablets and non-PC netbooks, breaking the PC’s decades-long market dominance. Unlike the 2009 netbook phenomenon, where buyers chose machines that were essentially less powerful versions of traditional PCs, the 2011 computing market will be dominated by devices that use different processing chips and operating systems than those used for PCs over the past 30 years. This shift represents a tipping point as we move from a world of mostly standardized PC-like devices to a far more heterogeneous environment.
Tablets in the enterprise: more than just a toy
In 2011, enterprises will purchase more than 25 percent of all tablet computers, a figure that’s likely to increase in 2012 and beyond. Although some commentators view tablets as underpowered media-consumption toys suitable only for consumers, more than 10 million of these devices will likely be purchased by enterprises in 2011. Consumer demand for tablets is expected to remain strong; however, enterprise demand is likely to grow even faster, although from a lower base.
eGov: from option to obligation
In 2011, rising demand for government efficiency and productivity will likely provide a major push for greater adoption of existing e-government (eGov) platforms and services, such as online income tax filing and building permits. Over 90 percent of businesses in developed countries are expected to use eGov services for at least one process, up from 75 percent in 2010. Similarly, the proportion of citizens that use eGov services in industrialized countries should rise by at least 10 percentage points. Mandatory use of these online channels may increase, which should boost the return on investment for e-government infrastructures.
Online regulation ratchets up, but cookies live on
During 2011, media criticism of online privacy will continue; however, legislative and regulatory changes that impact the way websites gather, share, and exploit user information will be minor. Cookies, which are the small files of personal information that websites create on a visitor’s computer, are very likely to remain core to the online user experience. While new online privacy legislation is expected to be modest, the online industry will likely become far more proactive when tackling privacy issues — expanding their efforts to influence legislation and increasing their level of self-regulation with the goal of avoiding new legislation altogether.
Squeezing the electrons in: batteries don’t follow Moore’s Law
Battery technology will make big leaps forward in 2011 and 2012 with increased energy density and lower prices. Plus, batteries should become more durable and charge faster. Unfortunately, even in a good year, advances in battery technology are slow compared to advances in the devices they power. Battery technology rarely attains anything resembling Moore’s Law, which correctly predicted that computer processing power would double every 18 months. Although progress in battery technology may seem slow, even five percent annual improvement can lead to significant gains over time.
For a copy of Deloitte’s Technology, Media & Telecommunications Predictions 2011 report, go to www.deloitte.com.au.
Deloitte's Predictions 2011 is also available in an iPad App format. You can download the TMT iPad App in the Apple Store for iPad (no cost).
The 2011 series of Predictions has drawn on internal and external inputs from conversations with member firm clients, contributions from Deloitte member firms’ 7,000 partners and managers specialising in TMT, and discussions with industry analysts as well as interviews with leading executives from around the world.