Welcome to our eleventh annual survey of retail sector confidence. Each Christmas period since 1995, Deloitte has carried out this in-depth analysis of the spending habits and the underlying moods of both consumers and retailers ahead of the most important time in the retail calendar.

We gather extensive consumer data ahead of the main Christmas shopping rush, as well as polling the opinions of a substantial number of the UK’s leading retailers. By taking an in-depth look at buying intentions and perceptions across different regions, ages and demographic groups, we have been able to build up a very detailed picture of the retail landscape.

This report is just a snapshot of what we’ve found and also includes some of our own views on the retail industry and the challenges retailers face in one of the world's toughest trading environments.

The Christmas lights always throw the retail industry into the spotlight, and this year the picture is far from sparkling. It’s hard to believe that less than three years ago retailers were buoyant and everyone was looking forward to seemingly never-ending growth in the High Street. People were spending more liberally than ever before: feeling rich on the back of rocketing house prices, low inflation and low interest rates, and virtually full employment.

So what happened?
Last year the predictions of retail meltdown failed to materialise fully, but there was a noticeable cooling off. And this year predictions are gloomier still. Just 40% of the retailers we questioned are expecting an increase in their sales this Christmas, compared with 65% last year. 

Is this just a natural correction after a somewhat unnatural high? Or are we witnessing the results of a much deeper malaise in the UK retail sector?

Learn more in our report Christmas cheer or Christmas fear (PDF, 1344 KB)

Previous surveys
2004 Christmas Retail Survey
2003 Christmas Retail Survey