This year, global trade in apparel and textiles is changing. In January 2005, the regime of quotas that governed such trade for the past 30 years was eliminated. In its place will be freer trade, but not completely free trade. How free depends on decisions yet to be made by importing country governments. And there lies a problem. Apparel producers and distributors would like to be able to plan on the basis of precise knowledge of the future trading regime. Yet that is not possible. Importing governments may or may not act to limit apparel and textile imports depending on the future flow of goods, the political consequences, and the political power of competing interests. Consequently, risk exists and market participants must plan accordingly.

This paper examines:

• Global trade in apparel and textiles;
• The evolution of the trading regime;
• Some likely scenarios for the future of global trade and protection;
• The impact of ending quotas on China and other emerging countries;
• The strategic choices that market participants must make in the coming years.

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