Commercial Real Estate Outlook (CRE) 2026
The opportunities are real – if you know where to look
As the commercial real estate sector navigates a complex recovery landscape, macroeconomic volatility and policy uncertainty continue to shape its trajectory. Key questions arise: Is now the time to re-engage with the market? Where do opportunities lie within the fragmented CRE loan environment? How can strategic partnerships unlock capital and diversify investment flows? And are AI investments in CRE driving real progress—or merely chasing potential? Our Commercial Real Estate Outlook 2026 provides answers to these questions.
Commercial Real Estate Outlook 2026
As part of the Commercial Real Estate Outlook 2026, the Deloitte Center for Financial Services conducted a survey of more than 850 C-level executives – including CEOs, CFOs, and COOs – and their direct reports at commercial real estate owners and investment firms with at least US$250 million in assets under management. The survey was carried out in June and July 2025.
Participants were asked to share their perspectives on organizational growth prospects, workforce strategies, operational plans, and technology priorities for the next 12 to 18 months. The survey also explored investment focus areas and expected shifts in commercial real estate fundamentals. Respondents represented three key regions: North America (Canada, Mexico, and the United States); Europe (France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, and the United Kingdom); and Asia Pacific (Australia, India, Japan, Mainland China, and Singapore).
Macroeconomic and policy factors challenge CRE rebound
The year 2025 was expected to bring a recovery for the global commercial real estate (CRE) industry, driven by a resurgence in deal activity, improved lending conditions, stronger industry collaboration, and technological advancements, particularly in artificial intelligence. However, developments have not unfolded as anticipated. A persistently unpredictable global macroeconomic environment is now influencing both the timing and extent of a full recovery over the next 12 to 18 months.
Results from the Commercial Real Estate Outlook 2026 reveal that trade and regulatory uncertainties have complicated decision-making processes, prompting some leaders in the CRE industry to reconsider their strategic approach. A resolution does not appear imminent, given that trade negotiations and legal challenges are ongoing. Nevertheless, there are likely to be growth opportunities for those who understand the geographic, asset-specific and macroeconomic nuances of the industry and who can remain agile and forward-looking.
CRE recovery on hold—what’s next for the industry?
Insights from Deloitte’s 2026 Commercial Real Estate Outlook survey highlight which macroeconomic conditions are most concerning to global owners, investors, and the broader CRE industry – and how these factors may influence business strategies, operations, and technology adoption. When asked about expected changes in revenues and expenses over the next 12 to 18 months, respondents showed a slight decline in optimism compared to last year. While 83% anticipate revenue growth by year-end, this is down from 88% previously. Across all spending categories – including operations, office space, and technology – fewer respondents plan to increase spending (down 5%), while more expect to maintain current levels (up 8%). Still, 68% foresee higher overall expenses this year.
A similar trend emerged regarding expectations for CRE fundamentals. Although 65% of respondents expect improvements in areas such as rental rates, leasing activity, vacancies, and cost of capital through 2026, this is slightly below last year’s figure of 68%. Despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, CRE fundamentals tend to evolve gradually, and growth is still anticipated across most asset classes and geographies. Reflecting this cautious optimism, this year’s CRE Outlook Sentiment Index scored 65 – well above the 2023 low of 44, though slightly below last year’s peak of 68 – indicating continued optimism across the industry (see figure 1).
Key findings from the Commercial Real Estate Outlook 2026 by Deloitte
- Macroeconomic Outlook: Recovery is delayed due to volatility, though overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic.
- 75% of respondents plan to increase CRE investments, mainly for inflation hedging and diversification.
- Sector Opportunities: Data centers are the top asset class, followed by logistics and industrial properties.
- Debt & Lending: New loans offer better terms, and private credit is driving market momentum despite stress in the legacy loan market.
- Partnerships: Strategic alliances are increasing as a flexible alternative to traditional M&A.
- AI Adoption: AI is gaining traction in tenant management and lease automation, though ensuring data quality remains a key challenge.
The Deloitte’s 2026 Commercial Real Estate Outlook which collected input from over 850 global chief executives across 13 countries reveals that macroeconomic conditions are likely of most concern to all industry stakeholders. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, industry fundamentals do not change overnight and growth is still expected across most asset classes and most geographies.
Michael Müller, Real Estate Leader Deloitte Germany
